COMEX Copper Inventories Hit Record High, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,986.5/mt. After opening, the price center rose, touching a high of $12,159.5/mt, breaking through the $12,000/mt level for the first time, then fell to a low of $11,961.5/mt. Subsequently, the price center rose and fluctuated rangebound, finally closing at $12,055/mt, a gain of 1.21%. Trading volume increased by 10,400 lots to 26,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,837 lots to 342,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened at 94,850 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it touched a high of 95,180 yuan/mt, then the copper price center moved lower, probing down to 93,830 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 94,890 yuan/mt. Trading volume increased by 46,800 lots to 186,000 lots, and open interest increased by 5,200 lots to 246,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 23, Copper Fox Metals released the latest development and exploration progress for its Van Dyke copper mine, emphasizing the project's potential to become a medium-scale, environmentally friendly copper mine.
(2) On December 23, Generation Mining stated that its Marathon copper-nickel-palladium project has reached a "shovel-ready" status and is advancing a final financing plan of approximately $1 billion.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 23, SMM's spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month 2601 contract were quoted at a discount of 260-170 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 215 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 93,340 to 93,600 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2601 contract generally fluctuated rangebound between 93,610 and 93,800 yuan/mt, edging up to 93,800 yuan/mt by the end of the session. The inter-month price spread was basically between C220 and C180. For tomorrow, buyer bids are still expected to maintain low expectations, trading activity is expected to be limited, and spot premiums are expected to continue declining.
(2) Guangdong: On December 23, spot prices for Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at a discount of 150-100 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 125 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 220-200 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 210 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 93,580 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 93,495 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, enterprises faced pressure to recoup funds, actively reduced prices to sell, spot premiums moved lower, and overall trading was poor.
(3) Imported copper: On December 23, warrant prices were $50-60/mt, QP January, with the average price up $7/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $48-60/mt, QP January, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $8-20/mt, QP January, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in late December and early January.
(4) Secondary copper: The closing price on December 23 at 11:30 was 94,160 yuan/mt, up 1,510 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -195 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 600 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,600-82,800 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,560 yuan/mt, down 123 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,410 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as the capital utilization cost for raw material procurement and finished product hedging increased during the rise in copper prices, many secondary copper rod enterprises reported weak production willingness due to this impact. Additionally, difficulties in raw material procurement meant that operating rates before the New Year's Day holiday were not expected to be ideal.
(5) Inventory: LME copper cathode inventory increased by 825 mt to 158,575 mt on December 22; SHFE warrant inventory increased by 1,001 mt to 49,543 mt on December 23.
Price: On the macro front, US Q3 GDP grew at its fastest pace in two years, reaching 4.3%, but the US consumer confidence index declined for the fifth consecutive month. Markets continued to bet on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts next year, putting the US dollar under pressure and pushing it below the 98 mark, which boosted copper prices. Additionally, COMEX copper inventories hit a record high, exacerbating concerns about tight supply in non-US regions and adding further momentum to the rise in copper prices. On the fundamentals, downstream procurement sentiment has not improved significantly. Overall, with macro tailwinds and expectations of tight supply, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]